2016年12月大学英语四级听力在线练习(86)思维导图

Anewstudyfindsthatthenaturaldeathofadictatordoesnotusuallyleadtoachangeinacounty’sgovernmentalsystem.Inotherwords,remainingleadersareunlikelytoputademocraticsystemintoplace.

ResearchersatMichiganStateUniversityandtheNationalIntelligenceCouncilcarriedoutthestudy,titled“WhenDictatorsDie.”ThemagazineJournalofDemocracypublishedit.

Thestudyfoundthatinmostcases,systemchangesaremoreprobableifadictatorisousted.

Theresearchersexaminedalmost80casesofdictatorswhodiedinofficebetween1946and2012.Theynotethat11ofthe55dictatorsnowinofficeareatleast70yearsold.Somearenotingoodhealth.

EricaFrantzisanassociateprofessoratMichiganState.Shewasoneoftheresearchers.

“ItstartedaboutthetimeofKimJong-il’sdeathinNorthKoreaafewyearsago.AndtherewasalotofbuzzinthemomentsafterwardsthatwemightseebigchangeinNorthKorea.Sowedecidedtodigaroundandlookatthedataandseewhattheempiricalrecordshowedbecausethat’snotanatypicalsituation.ThesametypeofthinghappenedalsoafterHugoChávez’sdeathinVenezuela.”

Frantzsaysresearcherswantedtoknowhowandwhenmediareportsofpossiblegovernmentalchangecametrue.

Shesaidtheyfoundthatnaturaldeathinofficewasusually,inherwords,“anon-event.”Shesaidleadershipchangesindictatorialsystemsusuallycomeduring“momentous”happenings,suchasoverthrows,electionsorrebellions.

Shesaysanexaminationoftheleadershipdeathsbetween1946and2012showsthereareseveralconditionsthatmightmakechangemorelikely.

Themorecentralizedthepower,shesays,themorelikelychangewillhappen.Inotherwords,iftherearefewornogovernmentalstructurestomanagethecontinuationofthesystem,changeismoreprobable.

Frantzsayspressure,suchasprotests,ontherulingpowerinthemonthsbeforeadictator’sdeathcanalsoincreasethelikelihood.

Thestudyalsoexaminedwhetheroverthrowsaremorelikelytotakeplacewhenarulerisold.Frantzsaysresearchersdidnotfindthattobethecase.

Shesaystherearelessonstobelearnedfromthestudy.Shesaysanolddictatorialleaderisasignofaskilledpolitician,whoisabletostayinpowerforalongtime.

“Theothertakeawaypoint,Ithink,isthatleadershiptransitionsmoregenerallyaremomentsthatincreaseacountry’sbaselineriskofregimecollapse.Butdeathinofficeisreallynotthemajormomentthatwecanleveragethosetypesofoccurrences.”

Researcherssayanotherreasonthereislittlechangeafteradictatorialrulerdiesinofficeisthattopofficialsseenoreasontochangepolicies.Somecountrieshavechangedtheconstitutiontopermitthemtoextendtheirterms,sometimesbymanyyears.Frantzsaystheyusethatmethodtogivetheappearanceofdemocracyratherthanusingforcetoremaininpower.

I’mKellyJeanKelly.

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buzz-n.excitedtalkaboutsomething

atypical-adj.nottypical:notusualornormal

empirical-adj.basedontestingorexperience

baseline-n.informationthatisusedasastartingpointbywhichtocompareotherinformation

regime-n.aformofgovernment

leverage-v.touse(somethingvaluable)toachieveadesiredresult